Why Mitch McConnell Just Might Want to See Biden Reelected
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Earlier this year I would not have thought a bipartisan compromise on immigration policy was possible, as the basic views of the two parties are so far apart.
But my analysis has changed.
I'll explain why. But first, here's what's leading the Washington Monthly website:
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Why Mitch McConnell Just Might Want to See Biden Reelected: my examination of the politics driving the nascent Ukraine aid-border security deal. Click here for the full story.
Conservatives Have Lost the Culture War: Contributing Writer David Atkins argues we are living in Taylor Swift's world, not Elon Musk's, and in turn, "conservatives are falling farther behind in terms of cultural and economic power." Click here for the full story.
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What's changed?
The flow of migrants continues to intensify, straining many state and local governments. While immigrants help the American labor market and overall economy in the long run, finding shelter for so many in the short-run is causing real hardship.
With the GOP base animated by "America First" nativists, pro-Ukraine Republicans in Congress don't feel they can back more foreign aid without pairing it with tough border security measures.
The success of President Joe Biden's foreign policy is contingent on defeating Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Plus, he's suffering abysmal poll numbers regarding his handling of the border. So he's accepting the Republican demand to pair the two issues, even though that will cause some grousing among progressives in the Democratic base.
That helps explain why the politics makes sense for Biden.
But that still doesn't explain why pro-Ukraine Republicans, like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, are negotiating with Biden on a Ukraine/border package.
After all, their likely presidential nominee Donald Trump opposes Ukraine aid, supports closer ties with Vladimir Putin, and wants to the end the war by giving Ukrainian territory to Russia. Why work so hard to give Biden a legislative victory?
The only conclusion I can draw—assuming a deal will come together—is that McConnell and other old school, Reaganite, anti-Russia Republicans don't want Trump to win.
These Republicans may not have the spine to publicly oppose Trump. But they don't want a Trump-Putin alliance either.
If a deal does come together, expect Trump to see it that way, and lash out at McConnell for betraying him.
Whatever divisions a deal may cause Democrats, I suspect the Republican divisions will be sharper and more consequential.
Read my latest column for more analysis of the Ukraine/border talks, and the Biden-McConnell friendship.
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Best,
Bill Scher, Washington Monthly Politics Editor