What to watch for at tonight's State of the Union address
Will the grand platform allow Biden to refocus the electorate's attention on something else besides his age, or the southern border, or the Middle East?
Not all State of the Union addresses are consequential or even memorable.
But tonight's address from President Joe Biden, one day after the last Republican challenger to Donald Trump exited the primary, is effectively the first salvo in the general election campaign.
Will the grand platform allow Biden to refocus the electorate's attention on something else besides his age, or the southern border, or the Middle East? And what can he do to best exploit this opportunity to reframe the race?
My SOTU preview awaits. But first, here's what's leading the Washington Monthly website:
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State of the Union Reminder: Economic Policies Can Revive the Heartland and Save Democracy: Brookings Institution Non-Resident Fellow John Austin argues Biden's "unprecedented investments in place-based industrial policy" can help connect with disaffected voters. Click here for the full story.
The Incompetent Malfeasance of Today’s Republican Party: Contributing Writer David Atkins chronicles the GOP's difficulties with performing basic governance. Click here for the full story.
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As I watch tonight, here's what I'll be looking for Biden to do.
Weave a narrative of economic progress: Biden has a history of talking about the economy in emotional, not academic, fashion, and showing empathy with a beaten-down middle-class.
Now he needs to apply that experience to meet a tougher challenge–stirring optimism among the chronically jaded for how far the economy has come and for where it will go.
Can Biden do more than just tick off good economic numbers, and tell a compelling story that boosts public confidence?
Set a course for the next four years: As important as it is to remind voters about the past, elections are often about the future. And State of the Union addresses are often used to propose policy agendas for the coming year and beyond.
However, the opportunity comes with innate risk. State of the Union addresses often turn into tedious laundry lists, unable to be narrowed down out of fear of offending various constituencies by omission. With the election expected to be close, the fear of alienating key voting blocs will be particularly palpable among Biden and his administration.
But an overstuffed overly ambitious agenda lacks credibility (few will believe it will all get accomplished) and clarity (few can remember a speech drowning in detail).
Can Biden emphasize a few priorities that energize base voters and impress swing voters?
Likely candidates for top priorities include:
* Economic fairness, as Biden's team has already telegraphed a focus on "junk fees" that nickel-and-dime consumers as well as higher corporate taxes
* Reproductive rights, which is of intense concern among liberal and moderate women following the demise of Roe v. Wade
* Climate change, which is of particular importance to young voters
Pressure Congress, delicately, on Ukraine and the border: Biden ran on a promise of restoring bipartisanship to Washington, and fulfilled it with signed legislation on infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, gun safety, Electoral College vote counting, postal service reform, raising the debt limit, and more.
But such cooperation faltered over Ukraine aid and border security. Biden's ability to tout his record of bipartisanship is hampered by the recent House Republican intransigence.
Biden will likely urge Congress to set aside political gamesmanship and address these issues. But will he do it in a strident or a conciliatory fashion?
The risk of the former, especially on this rarified stage, is he may look like he's playing his own political games. Biden is at his best, and makes his best case for re-election, when he makes Washington work, not when he descends into tit-for-tat.
Can Biden remind Congress (and, in turn, the electorate) of its recent ability to rise above partisan bickering and constructively encourage them to replicate it on today's most pressing matters?
Navigate the Middle East: While we should not expect any dramatic shift in policy, Biden will have to address the Israel-Gaza war, which is replete with political pitfalls.
Can Biden keep the focus on what unites Americans–a desire for peace and advance towards a lasting diplomatic solution–and avoid feeding division between those of different sympathies?
Ad-lib, if and when heckled: One of Biden's best moments was during last year's State of the Union.
He charged some Republicans with wanting to cut Medicare and Social Security, and provoked booing from Republicans. Seeing that they were rejecting the charge, he went off-script and won applause for saying "we all apparently agree," claiming victory for achieving bipartisan agreement on live TV. (The resulting debt limit deal did not cut retirement security.)
Not only did that burnish Biden's bipartisan credentials, it rebutted accusations of cognitive decline.
Unfortunately for Biden, that example of mental agility has not be constantly recirculated on social media, unlike all those times Biden has flubbed a name or stumbled over a word.
Another unruly moment from Republican backbenchers could certainly happen tonight, as could one from progressives demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Will Biden be ready for it? Asked about it yesterday, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, "He got this."
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Best,
Bill Scher, Washington Monthly