Trump Promised 100% Tariffs on Chinese EVs. Biden Did It. Will It Work?

The US auto industry could use steep tariffs so it doesn't get steamrolled in the electric vehicle market, but maybe not forever.

The big political news today, as was the case yesterday, is Michael Cohen's testimony in the Donald Trump hush money trial.

The big policy news today is Joe Biden slapping stiff tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports, including a striking 100 percent tariff on electric vehicles (EVs), up from 27.5 percent. You can read the White House announcement here.

Is this policy a good idea? Is it crude protectionism in the mold of Trump? Is it honorably standing up for American workers? Will it help or hurt the transition to a clean energy economy?

I have thoughts, but first, here's what's leading the Washington Monthly website:

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I explored the tricky politics of Biden's electric vehicle agenda for the Washington Monthly (and in this newsletter) in March, making the argument that to the extent Biden's EV policies make China mad—as they were already doing—it will be easier for Biden to claim his EV agenda is good for American workers.

But is Biden's tariff policy emulating Trump? More than that, it's plagiarizing Trump.

In my earlier article, I noted that the idea for a 100 percent tariff on Chinese EVs originated with Trump at a Ohio rally: "Let me tell you something to China … We’re going to put a 100 percent tariff on every single car that comes across the line, and you’re not going to be able to sell those cars."

Should Biden be taking policy ideas from Trump's Sinophobic rantings to the MAGA faithful?

There's a sound pro-environment, and pro-consumer, argument, that he shouldn't: Americans should be able to buy low-cost, fossil fuel-free vehicles, wherever they are built.

But that view disregards the potential for severe disruption of the American auto industry and its workers, which could have economic impact and related political impact, leading to the election of a president who would squelch all attempts to solve the climate crisis.

Would a 100 percent tariff on Chinese EVs actually help American automakers sell their own EVs?

I cited a quote first given to Politico from an American auto executive who cautioned that the price gap between American and Chinese EVS is so wide that "tariffs alone" aren't enough.

But I also cited New York Times climate columnist Robinson Meyer who argued that high tariffs make sense in the short-run to prevent American auto companies from drowning in a "wave of cheap cars." But, in his view, "permanent" tariffs would be too much of a disincentive to innovate, adapt and produce EVS that can compete globally.

So Biden may be putting EV policy on the right track, as long as we don't overly rely on tariffs in the future.

Not being an auto industry analyst, whether or not these 100 percent tariffs are ultimately the best policy I can't definitively say.

The politics of it, however, are more easily justified.

Biden is cannily taking away a potential attack line from Trump, while showing America can stand up to China, support American auto manufacturing and address climate change at the same time.

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Best,

Bill Scher, Washington Monthly politics editor