Republicans, Not Democrats, Have the Messaging Problem
With polls showing the One Big Beautiful Bill is a big, ugly bust, we’re seeing the limits of Trump’s sloganeering.
Republicans, Not Democrats, Have the Messaging Problem
With polls showing the One Big Beautiful Bill is a big, ugly bust, we’re seeing the limits of Trump’s sloganeering.
by Bill Scher
All year, we’ve heard from pundits and even some Democrats that the Democratic Party has a “brand problem.” For longer than that, Democrats have been awed by Donald Trump’s ability to deliver pithy, punchy messages without accuracy or substance. At the same time, the Democratic Party struggles to communicate nuanced points about its past governing record and future agenda.
But Republicans are the party with the immediate and consequential messaging bust. Polls show that Trump and congressional Republicans have failed to sell the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which could make its passage a pyrrhic victory—if it passes at all.
Trump's attempt to put his trademark sloganeering ahead of the bill's specifics gave the sprawling budget reconciliation legislation its “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” label. But two recent polls asked voters about the bill using just the title, without offering specifics.
Quinnipiac University asked, “Based upon what you have heard or read about the legislation, do you support or oppose the One Big Beautiful Bill Act?” Only 27 percent supported it, with 53 percent opposed.
KFF posed a similar question: “Overall, based on what you know, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the tax and budget bill being discussed by Congress, also known as the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’? Favorable scored 35 percent, unfavorable 64 percent.
Taking the name off the bill doesn’t help matters. When a recent Washington Post-Ipsos poll asked, “Do you support or oppose the budget bill changing tax, spending, and Medicaid policies?” support registered at a limp 23 percent, with 42 percent opposed and another 34 percent expressing no opinion.
Republicans could tell themselves they could fix their messaging problem by focusing more on the bill’s popular provisions, because these surveys indicate some provisions are at least superficially popular.
Take Medicaid work requirements. Post-Ipsos asked if respondents supported “requiring low-income childless adults under age 65 to prove they are working or disabled to get health insurance through Medicaid.” Support outpaced opposition 52 to 33 percent. KFF asked, “Do you support or oppose requiring nearly all adults with Medicaid to prove that they are working, looking for work, in school, or doing community service, with exceptions for caregivers and people with disabilities?” Support was even stronger, with 68 percent versus 32 percent opposing.
But the polls giveth, then taketh away.
Both surveys tested support for the work requirements after responders were told about the Republican measure’s potential consequences. When KFF asked, “What if you heard that most people on Medicaid are already working or unable to work because they are either disabled or caring for a family member? Such a requirement would put many of them at risk of losing coverage due to the difficulty proving eligibility through required paperwork,” nearly half of those supporting work requirements flipped, leaving 35 percent of respondents in favor.
Post-Ipsos informed respondents, “The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the budget bill’s addition of Medicaid work requirements, more frequent eligibility verification, and penalties for states that pay for undocumented immigrants to access Medicaid could result in about 8 million people losing Medicaid health insurance.” Only 32 percent deemed that “acceptable.”
Getting the public to embrace Medicaid work requirements means getting it to ignore the prospect of negative consequences. But the toothpaste is out of the tube. When KFF asked, “Thinking about the tax and budget bill being discussed by Congress, how concerned are you, if at all, that more adults and children will become uninsured because of changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act?” a whopping 72 percent said they are either “very” or “somewhat concerned.”
These responses didn’t emerge in a vacuum. You can’t find much media coverage of the bill’s Medicaid provisions that don’t mention the prospect of folks losing their insurance. (The data comes from the Congressional Budget Office, controlled by the Republican majority.) Republicans can’t wish it away with mere message repetition. Insisting that all 8 million Americans who could be rendered uninsured are Medicaid fraudsters isn’t clicking with voters.
Republicans are once again being reminded of some basic political lessons. Governing is hard, and messaging while governing is harder than messaging while out of power. Policies can’t always be reduced to slogans.
Democrats, usually brimming with complicated 10-point plans, live and breathe these challenges. Trump brought Republicans into power, not with 10-point plans but by trumpeting Trump’s abilities. (“I alone can fix it,” he famously said in 2016.) Perhaps his cultish hold on rank-and-file Republicans is enough to compel his narrow congressional majority to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill. Still, it’s manifestly insufficient to pass it with broad public support.
This isn’t the first time Republicans have had messaging problems while in power. In 2017, Trump’s first year in office, Republicans couldn’t pass a budget reconciliation bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act in part because public blowback prompted three Republican senators to break ranks. Later that year, Republicans passed a budget reconciliation bill that cut taxes, but Democrats tarred the tax cut bill as a giveaway to the rich in the 2018 midterms, helping them win the House.
You might think Republicans would learn from failure. But Trump has never been much for personal growth. Overselling and unrealistic expectations are problems for another day. The problem for Republicans is that day may be November 3, 2026, the next midterm Election Day.
Bill Scher is the Politics Editor of the Washington Monthly
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