Joe Biden (And Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown) Could Use a Bipartisan Immigration Deal
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POP QUIZ!
Who was the last president to sign a major immigration bill?
The answer in a bit. But first, here's what's leading the Washington Monthly website:
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Joe Biden (And Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown) Could Use a Bipartisan Immigration Deal: My exploration of the political incentives that could lead to a compromise on this highly charged issue. Click here for the full story.
“Qatar Has Been the Conduit for Countries to Talk to People They Can’t Talk to Openly”: Matthew Cooper talks to the former U.S. ambassador to Qatar Patrick Theros about the unique role in the Middle East played by the wealthy emirate. Click here for the full story.
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POP QUIZ ANSWER: Bill Clinton
You might have forgotten, or never knew about, the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996.
While the negotiations produced a minor congressional drama in the heat of the fall presidential campaign, the bill was folded into a larger omnibus spending package, then didn't receive much attention after that.
Yet the bill was a significant moment in America's immigration policy history.
Ronald Reagan enacted a sweeping amnesty for most undocumented immigrants in 1986, and George H. W. Bush in 1990 raised caps on the number of people allowed to enter.
But those liberal measures (signed into law by conservative Republicans) produced backlash to immigration in the 1990s, especially in California.
In 1994, Golden State voters overwhelmingly approved a ballot initiative (eventually ruled unconstitutional) denying public school education and non-emergency health services to the undocumented. The Republican governor, Pete Wilson, hammered Clinton for his handling of the border.
Also in 1994, Republicans seized control of Congress. They often passed conservative legislation designed to put Clinton on the spot.
Weeks before the 1996 election, they tried to squeeze him on immigration, folding a punitive package in with an omnibus spending bill near the deadline to keep several government agencies open.
Clinton successfully resisted some of the most onerous Republican proposals, including a ban on public schooling for undocumented children, and denying public health benefits to immigrants with HIV/AIDS.
Since Clinton's opponent Bob Dole (who resigned from the Senate three months prior) pushed for the rejected public school ban, Clinton emerged from the standoff as the political winner. The incumbent maintained his healthy polling lead, and won re-election comfortably.
But the surviving provisions in the bill make more undocumented immigrants eligible for deportation and, according to Dara Lind, writing for Vox in 2016, "laid the groundwork for the massive deportation machine that exists today."
As I wrote for the Monthly today, Joe Biden finds himself in a set of circumstances somewhat similar to Bill Clinton's: a public increasingly upset about an influx of immigrants, and a Republican conference determined to link tougher border measures on a must-pass legislative vehicle.
As with Clinton, Biden has powerful political incentives to strike a bipartisan deal on immigration. As with Clinton, such incentives could lead to an excessively punitive bill.
Perhaps one key difference is that a bill that's mainly restrictive wouldn't necessarily help Biden politically as much as in Clinton's time. Harsh measures can backfire and drive more migrants towards crossing the border illegally. Conversely, a severe reduction in immigration could worsen our already tight labor market and goose inflation.
I have more to say about the stiff challenge, and the potential rewards, awaiting Biden. Click here to read my Monthly analysis.
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Best,
Bill Scher
Politics Editor, Washington Monthly