Is Biden poised to rebound?
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Time for a POP QUIZ!
In the Real Clear Politics average of national trial heat polling of a Joe Biden-vs.-Donald Trump race, how many lead changes have taken place in 2023?
The answer below. But first, here's what's leading the Washington Monthly website:
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Stop Whining About the “Kids Today”: Lara Schwartz, founding director of the Project on Civil Dialogue, criticized pressure from university donors to censor speech and protest. Click here for the full story.
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POP QUIZ ANSWER: Trump and Biden exchanged the lead five times this year.
That's an unusually high amount in the pre-election year phase.
In 2019 and 2015, between the two eventual nominees, there were none. In 2o11, there were four (as Mitt Romney briefly took a slight lead twice.) RCP data only began tracking a Barack Obama-vs.-John McCain contest in September 2007, and found two lead changes at the very end of the year.
This year's poll data suggests two things.
One, this is a close race. Two, swing voters still exist.
It may seem bizarre that anyone wouldn't have a firm opinion on either Biden or Trump at this point, but that is the case.
Because minds aren't completely made up, external events and candidate performances will determine the final outcome.
So while Biden isn't yet getting credit for the strengthening economy, this week's news that the Consumer Confidence Index rose in November reminds us that may change. As one economist told NBC News, in response to the numbers, "This is the pivot, the beginning of the end of the 'vibecession.'"
And we can't know yet if the Colorado Supreme Court decision throwing Trump off the Republican primary ballot will have any immediate political impact. But it's a reminder that Trump's legal troubles are far from over and (as I wrote about today) the Supreme Court has a huge, possibly determinative, role to play in his court cases.
Much can still happen that could affect the election. For example, we don't know what's next for the Israel-Gaza war, whether the Republican House can keep the government open next month, and whether a Ukraine/border security deal can be forged and sent to the president's desk.
So even though Biden is running slightly behind Trump today, events on the horizon may help him rebound tomorrow.
While no one can know for sure, I suspect we haven't seen the last lead change of this presidential campaign.
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Happy solstice,
Bill Scher, Washington Monthly Politics Editor