By How Much Does Harris Need to Win The Popular Vote to Win the Electoral College?

Many assume that Kamala Harris will have to win the national popular vote by a substantial margin in order to secure the presidency. But that might not be true in 2024.

Al Gore and Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote but lost the Electoral College. Joe Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points but eked out narrower wins in six battleground states to win the Electoral College.

These results have led many to assume that Kamala Harris will have to win the national popular vote by a substantial margin in order to secure the presidency.

But that might not be true in 2024.

I'll crunch the numbers shortly. But first, here's what's leading the Washington Monthly website.

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Current trial heat polling does not show a big divergence between national and swing state sentiment.

As of Tuesday, in polls collected by FiveThirtyEight, Harris's average lead in 11 two-way trial heats, sampled at least partially in August, is 1.6 points.

(I've written before how I don't believe Robert F. Kennedy Jr. should be included in national polling until he secures sufficient ballot access. According to the Kennedy campaign, so far he's only officially on 17 state ballots, just two of which are swing states. And his recent court defeat—losing New York access because he listed a fraudulent residential address on his paperwork—could severely complicate his efforts in other states.)

Two-way nonpartisan battleground state polling in August is minimal, but here's what we have:

ARIZONA

HighGround: Harris +2

Average: Harris +2

MICHIGAN

InsiderAdvantage: Harris +2

The New York Times/Siena College: Harris +4

The Bullfinch Group: Harris +5

Average: Harris +3.7

PENNSYLVANIA

The Bullfinch Group: Harris +4

The New York Times/Siena College: Harris +4

Average: Harris +4

WISCONSIN

InsiderAdvantage: Tie

Marquette University Law School: Harris +1

RMG Research: Harris +3

The New York Times/Siena College: Harris +4

The Bullfinch Group: Harris +9

Average: Harris +3.4

In all four of these states, Harris is running slightly better that her national numbers.

And winning these four states (along with the Omaha-based 2nd congressional district of Nebraska) would yield an Electoral College majority of 281 electoral votes.

Also worth noting is that in 2020 the final Real Clear Politics poll averages for these states were pretty accurate. Biden underperformed the Michigan average by just 1.4 and Arizona by 0.6. Pennsylvania was on the nose. (Wisconsin was the one state that was way off: a 6 point whiff.)

Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina have a few nonpartisan multi-candidate polls in which Harris is not leading. Redfield & Wilton Strategies finds a tied race in Nevada, and Trump up 2 in Georgia. Cygnal has Trump up 3 in North Carolina (where Kennedy is officially on the ballot).

Still, we are not seeing swing states, in unison, consistently lean more Republican than the national mood.

And this is not a dynamic that only just materialized after Biden withdrew. As I wrote in April, trial heat polling all year in the Rust Belt states has largely tracked national averages.

The southeast and southwest swing states may still be a bit redder than the midwest and mid-Atlantic swing states, even though Harris appears to have improved on Biden's position and made all those states newly competitive.

Of course, summer poll data may not reflect the final outcome. Divergence between the final national and battleground popular vote is still possible.

But electorates are constantly changing. Even in 2020, the amount of divergence in specific states was not exactly the same as 2016.

Biden's margin of victory in all of the battleground states was smaller than his 4.5 percentage point national popular vote margin. But compared to 2016, the amount of divergence from the national margin narrowed in Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia, while widening in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In other words, the states did not move in lock step.

Today's poll data suggests the battlegrounds are getting bluer, and may no longer provide Republicans with an Electoral College advantage.

Therefore, we cannot calculate with any certainty by how much Harris must win the national popular vote in order to win the Electoral College. A slight majority or plurality could even prove sufficient.

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Bill Scher, Washington Monthly politics editor