Biden's Clearest Electoral College Path

The President is running stronger in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin than Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.

While all of us at the Washington Monthly try to protect ourselves from Mad Poll Disease, I still regularly pore through general election poll numbers to see if we can detect interesting developments.

And I do think we're seeing some materialize over the last few weeks.

First:

Joe Biden's clearest path to 270 Electoral College votes is by winning the Rust Belt swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin along with Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, which encompasses urban Omaha.

Adding those to the safely blue states yields a 270-268 Biden win.

Yes, Some Republicans in Nebraska are pushing to end the practice of awarding Electoral College votes by district, so Biden can't win NE-02 a second time.

But if that happened, Maine—which also awards Electoral College votes by district, and where Donald Trump has reliably won the rural ME-02—would probably do the same, and it would be an Electoral College wash.

Second:

Trial heat data in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is roughly tracking national trial heat data.

So while it has been assumed by many that Republicans hold an Electoral College advantage, requiring a national popular vote cushion for a Democrat to win the presidency, that may not be the case in 2024. (Nate Cohn at The New York Times flagged this possibility back in September.)

I'll dive deeper into the data, but first, here's what's leading the Monthly website:

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Day Eight: Pecker Survives Cross-Examination at Trump Trial: Contributing Editor Jonathan Alter continues to deliver inside-the-courtroom details of the Trump hush money trial you can't get anywhere else. Click here for the full story.

Will the Supreme Court Kill the National Labor Relations Board?: Ruben J. Garcia, a professor of law at the William S. Boyd School of Law at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, examines pending court cases that could weaken the labor agency's authority. Click here for the full story.

***

Between March 1 and April 22, Trump's lead in both the Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight averages dropped from 2 to 0.3 points. As of April 30, the former ticked up to 1.4 and the latter to 0.6.

Tracking swing state poll movement is trickier business, because state-level polling is far less frequent. Real Clear Politics lists 16 national polls sampled in April, but only 5 in Michigan and Wisconsin, and 4 in Pennsylvania. With fewer polls, one new poll has bigger impact on the average, making averages statistically noisier.

But with that caveat, here are the Trump average margins from March 1 to April 30 in the three Rust Belt swing states:

MICHIGAN

RCP: 1.0 -> 1.2

538: 3.5 -> 1.2

PENNSYLVANIA

RCP: -0.8 -> 1.0

538: 3.7 -> 1.8

WISCONSIN

RCP: 1.0 -> 1.8

538: 2.7 -> 2.6

Biden appears to be down about 1 point nationally, and down about 1 or 2 points in the Rust Belt swing states, well within any margin of error.

And this is with most polls showing Biden performing quite badly with young voters, which could change by November if the Middle East conflict de-escalates and the economy continues improving.

Notably, despite concerns of a depressed Arab-American vote in the Dearborn area, Biden is performing just as well in Michigan as the other Rust Belt swing states, and maybe a little bit better. Two Michigan polls from April have Biden ahead. The best he's done in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in any single April poll is a tie.

In the glass-half-empty department, while Biden looks very competitive up north, he's lagging as we move south and west.

Here's the movement in Trump's average margin from March 1 to April 30 in the Sun Belt swing states.

ARIZONA

RCP: 5.5 -> 5.0

538: 5.4 -> 3.2

GEORGIA

RCP: 6.5 -> 3.8

538: 6.6 -> 5.8

NEVADA

RCP: 7.7 -> 4.5

538: 6.6 -> 4.9

NORTH CAROLINA

RCP: 5.7 -> 5.4

538: 7.5 -> 6.3

Another caveat here: some of these states have been polled even less frequently than the Rust Belt states. Real Clear Politics identifies 2 April polls in Arizona and Nevada, 3 in Georgia, and 4 in North Carolina.

Still, Biden appears to be running about 4-to-6 points behind in the southerly swing states, compared to about 1-to-2 points up north. (To make the glass a little less empty, we see a bit more improvement for Biden in the springtime Sun Belt swing state polling than we see in the north.)

In Cohn's September analysis, he deemed Biden as "relatively resilient among white voters," helping explain why he is holding up better in the Rust Belt swing states, which are whiter than the nation as a whole.

None of these margins are insurmountable. But the clearest path for Biden runs north.

(Note: The Real Clear Politics averages I used in this newsletter edition are two-way trial heats, but the FiveThirtyEight averages include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. As I've previously written, I don't believe we should include Kennedy in national polling until we see more proof he will get on most state ballots, and he shouldn't be included in state polling where he is not yet on the ballot. The only swing state in which his ballot access is secured so far is Michigan, though Kennedy claims to have the signatures for Nevada and North Carolina.)

HOW FAR TRUMP WOULD GO

Eric Cortellessa, Washington Monthly contributing editor, just published a terrifying yet policy-focused interview with Trump for Time magazine, previewing his planned second-term agenda. How Far Trump Would Go is an absolute must-read.

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Best,

Bill Scher, Washington Monthly politics editor